In November, Polish industry increased production by 15.2% annually, Statistics Poland reported. Excluding readings from April and May – which were burdened with the low base effect from 2020 – the November reading is the highest for the entire year.
According to Mariusz Zielonka, an economic expert at the Polish Confederation Lewiatan, this excellent result means a very good forecast for GDP growth in Q4 and 2021 as a whole. More detailed data show that the November positive surprise is due to unprecedented growth in the energy sector. The 50% annual growth here is directly due to constantly rising prices of gas and electricity, as well as the increase in prices of CO2 emission allowances.
According to preliminary data, in November this year, compared to November last year, an increase in sold production was recorded in 31 out of 34 industrial sectors, including in repair, maintenance and installation of machinery and equipment: 47.6%; in the production of chemicals and chemical products 28.6%; metals 26.7%; machinery and equipment 20.4%; paper and products paper 19.9%; metal products 17.4%. A decrease in sold industrial production, as compared to November last year, occurred in 3 sections, including the production of leather and leather goods: 8.5%.
Good industry results also mean the gradual disappearance of problems with supply chains. Although supply problems are still reported by Polish producers, it is not fully visible in the data. This may be the result of a certain opening of the Asian economy after restrictions related to the Delta variant of the coronavirus, as well as increased inventories that entrepreneurs were making during the easing of restrictions in Europe.
Some optimism is added by the resolution of problems connected with the availability of components for the production of cars and machines. The production dynamics here increased by 1.4% annually for the first time since June 2021.