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Thursday, April 18, 2024

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Polish economy surprises on the upside

Industrial production in February 2024 increased by 3.3% compared to the previous year. On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.7%, according to the Central Statistical Office. 

In February, sold industrial production was higher by 3.3% compared to February last year, when there was a decrease of 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, while compared to January this year it increased by 0.7%. In the period January – February this year, sold industrial production was by 2.8%. higher compared to the same period of 2023 – informs the Central Statistical Office. Experts expected an increase of 2.6%.

In turn, according to preliminary data, prices of sold industrial production in March 2022 increased by 4.9% compared to February 2022, and 20.0% compared to the same month of the previous year. Among the main industrial groupings, in February this year there was an annual increase in the production of investment goods – by 11.5%, of non-durable consumer goods by 3.8% and supply goods by 1.0%. However, the production of energy-related goods decreased by 1.8% percent and consumer durable goods by 0.1%. 

Even before the publication of the Central Statistical Office data, bank experts presented their analyses. “Due to, among other things, favorable calendar factors, industrial production in February will show an increase again in February, by 1.6% y/y,” PKO BP experts said. “In the case of the construction sector, we expect weaker results – construction production in February probably continued to suffer as a result of the end of the EU financial perspective and, according to us, it decreased by 2.7% y/y. We expect that in February PPI deflation was slightly shallower than in the month earlier and amounted to -8.7% y/y,” they added.

ING experts also presented their forecast. “We forecast that industrial production increased by 1.5% y/y (consensus: 2.4%), i.e. at a similar pace as in January (1.6% y/y). Latest PMI results and slow signals in German industry give cause for cautious optimism and the possibility of slightly better production data than we assume. The data will show whether the industry recovery will be visible already in February or only in the following months,” wrote the Central Statistical Office before the publication of the data.

Jo Harper
Jo Harper
Jo Harper is a British national with a 20-year freelance journalistic career in Poland, Germany and the UK, writing for Deutsche Welle, Politico, the BBC, the Daily Mirror, Gazeta Wyborcza, Polityka, New Eastern Europe and Forbes. He is a published author of books on Polish affairs and holds a PhD from the London School of Economics.
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