According to economists from mBank, Poland’s ability to combine structural investments with resilience to external challenges will be key to maintaining its upward trajectory.
As we look ahead to 2025, Poland is set to emerge as one of Europe’s economic bright spots. With GDP growth projected to approach 4%, the country’s economy stands on solid ground despite significant global headwinds. According to economists from mBank, Poland’s ability to combine structural investments with resilience to external challenges will be key to maintaining its upward trajectory.
The global environment, however, offers little comfort. In the eurozone, growth will remain sluggish, weighed down by low inflation and weak demand. Across the Atlantic, the U.S. economy will slow, teetering on the edge of a “soft landing” that depends on swift action from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, China remains a wildcard, adding further unpredictability to global trade and supply chains. To complicate matters, the specter of rising protectionism looms large, threatening to further strain international cooperation and economic growth.
Yet despite these challenges, Poland finds itself in a fortunate position. While many countries must rely on domestic efforts to sustain growth, Poland benefits from an exogenous source of investment demand—namely, European Union funds. These funds will drive major infrastructure projects in 2025, helping to modernize the country’s economy while creating new opportunities for private-sector innovation.
Investments Drive Growth
Investment will be the backbone of Poland’s economic growth next year. Projects like the Central Communication Port (CPK), modernization of energy transmission networks, and the initial steps toward nuclear energy development will take center stage. These large-scale initiatives will be supplemented by private-sector investments in automation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy, further accelerating Poland’s transition to a modern, sustainable economy.
At the same time, Poland’s local governments will begin to unlock previously stalled investments, bolstered by incoming EU funds. Smaller but equally vital projects—both central and municipal—will breathe life into regions that have struggled with stagnation in recent years.
Economists at mBank point to military spending as a potential “dark horse” for growth. While defense budgets will primarily fund the import of advanced military equipment, the associated infrastructure, supply chain, and workforce needs will inject momentum into Poland’s domestic economy. In regions facing restructuring due to rising automation and cost-cutting measures, the military could also play a stabilizing role by absorbing excess labor.
Moderating Consumption and a Shifting Labor Market
For years, Poland’s strong labor market has been the cornerstone of household spending, fueling robust consumption growth. In 2025, however, wage dynamics are expected to slow, reflecting broader global trends. While nominal wages will continue to rise, they will do so at a more moderate pace, dampening the contribution of consumption to overall GDP growth.
Nevertheless, inflationary pressures are easing, which will help stabilize household budgets. The economists from mBank emphasize that the anticipated spike in early 2025—driven largely by statistical and regulatory adjustments—should not be misinterpreted as a resurgence of inflation. Rather, inflation will continue its downward trajectory throughout the year, supported by improving productivity and slower wage growth.
This evolving environment will also shape the Monetary Policy Council’s (RPP) response. While the Council has so far maintained a cautious stance, mBank forecasts a shift toward rate cuts as inflationary concerns recede. The first reduction could come as early as March, with policymakers responding to clear signs of a disinflationary landscape.
Global Headwinds and Geopolitical Tensions
Poland’s economic outlook, though strong, is not immune to external shocks. Ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a defining feature of the global landscape, with no clear resolution in sight for the war in Ukraine or conflicts in the Middle East. Meanwhile, weather-related disruptions—now a near-constant backdrop—will continue to challenge global supply chains.
The mBank economists note that while such events carry the risk of supply shocks, their impact on inflation will be less pronounced in 2025. The global economy, increasingly defined by excess production capacity and rising productivity, offers a more resilient foundation against short-term disruptions.
The Road Ahead: A Defining Year for Poland
Despite the turbulent global backdrop, Poland’s economy is well-positioned to deliver strong growth in 2025. EU funds will serve as a powerful catalyst for investment, fueling transformative projects that lay the groundwork for long-term prosperity. At the same time, private-sector innovation—driven by automation, energy efficiency, and green technology—will help ensure the economy remains competitive in an evolving world.
While consumption growth will moderate, the labor market remains resilient, and easing inflation will provide relief for households. For the Monetary Policy Council, the shifting inflation landscape creates room for monetary easing, which will further support economic activity.
As geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty persist, Poland’s ability to chart its own path—rooted in strategic investment and economic adaptability—will be critical. According to mBank economists, 2025 will not simply be a “good” year for Poland; it will be a defining one. With the right mix of investment, innovation, and policy support, Poland has the opportunity to emerge stronger and more resilient, setting an example for the rest of Europe.
In a world of uncertainty, Poland’s economy is proving that strategic vision and focused execution can drive growth, even when the global winds blow in the opposite direction.
