Four years of Trump – how Poles see prospects

So think nearly half of Poles, according to a new poll by United Surveys on behalf of Wirtualna Polska website in the running to the inauguration. Asked how Donald Trump’s presidency will affect Poland’s security, some 46.2% of respondents believed the outlook was positive. Among the optimists, 13.9% considered that security would “definitely improve”, while 32.3% thought that it would “rather improve”.

If Trump’s first term is anything to go by, the US leader has shown openness to cooperation. He forged excellent relations with Polish President Andrzej Duda during his first term in the US’s top spot, and had favoured high-spending Poland over other Nato members who had spent less on defence. There’s no indicating those relations have waned.

Poland was the only European Union member state to make the list of top twenty countries for Donald Trump to make contact with on taking office. On the list made public in late January by the State Department Poland figured as number 15. Even large trading partners like Germany and France did not make the roster, not to mention the UK.

There’s no indication that relations with the Polish head of state and armed forces chief have waned but as Duda’s term is now entering its last few months, it is Donald Tusk the Polish Prime Minister who will play first fiddle.

The two often locked horns when Tusk was head of the European Council, the body assembling government ministers of the member countries. The scuffles over imports of French cheese, whisky and planes we saw 8 years ago could be small beer compared to what Trump has been threatening.

For the next 6 months Poland holds the presidency of the bloc, and will set the agenda for European policy. Poland’s position on US relations will be closely aligned to Europe’s. These close relations could be easily soured.

Trump is taking a hard line against European automotive imports, which would hurt Poland’s bottom line. Industry ststistics indicate around 10% of the parts on German cars, for example, originate from Polish factories.

Worse still is the exclusion of Poland and many other European countries from the list of coutries who will be able to import the newest generation of US-designed silicon chips used in the most advanced AI development projects.

The newly-announced US Government Stargate project which promises from $500 bn of state support for technology projects will further create a gulf in technology investment between the US and Europe.

That aside, the progress the Chinese rival to Open AI’s Chat GPT – Deep Seek – has made on less advanced chips could encourage Polish IT wannabees that all is not lost. Using older US chips they have produced a highly praised AI Chatbox, competitor. Analysts are calling Deep Seek’s success a “Sputnik moment” for the US, similar to when the Russians soared ahead in the space race in the 1960s.. The barriers to entry of the biggest players may be porous.

Another trying aspect of this new esr of Polish US relations is Trump’s expulsion of illegal refugees, which is now dividing Poles.

The overtly strong-arm policy of sending home people without the right papers, does not get support across the board here. The problem is that among the 10 million US residents identifying as Polish, as many as 30,000 have overstayed their visas and could be sent home. Even Polish right wingers are shocked.

Only 9.1% of respondents to a recent poll in Rzeczpospolita daily strongly agree that the illegal immigrants from Poland should be sent home. Meanwhile 25.2% answered “rather yes”. “Rz” adds that 23.9% chose the answer +rather not+, and , while 14.3% +definitely not+. A large group of Poles – 27.5% – have no opinion” – it reports. However, the sight of plane loads of evicted long term residents would not be gladly perceived in Poland.

Poles have faith in Trump’s team taking a sensible approach to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and there are indications Trump understands why he couldn’t end it on day one of his presidency.

Peace would bring Poland dividends, as does US solidarity with Ukraine’s cause. Nevertheless unpredictability is an expectation Trump is guaranteed to fulfil.