Poland is facing dynamic demographic changes that will shape the future of the market of senior housing and accompanying private long-term care services. With an ageing population and changing attitudes to elderly care, the sector is gaining increasing investor interest. During the event “Senior Living & Care Market in Poland”, co-organised by CMS in Poland, the consulting firm Savills, and the Senior Housing & Healthcare Association (SHHA), experts stressed that on the one hand, these changes increase the investment potential, but, on the other, they highlight a number of challenges, including the systemic ones.
“Demographic and economic changes leave no illusions – the need for care for seniors in Poland will grow. We are facing a situation where investment in the senior living sector is no longer an option but a necessity”, said Anna Wiśniewska, advocate and counsel in the Real Estate and Construction practice at CMS, as she opened the discussion by highlighting the main factors driving the market forward.
Although the phrase “senior living” may seem obscure, there are already operators on the Polish market who operate this type of commercial project. Despite the differences in definitions, they can be simplified by dividing them into the following two types: independent living, which is housing for the elderly that is adapted to their needs, with the possibility of additional support services such as cleaning, catering, nurse support, and assistance with transport to doctors and hospitals; and nursing homes, which provide professional, round-the-clock and comprehensive care.
“For the correct legal qualification of an investment project targeting the needs of older people, the scope of the services offered to clients and patients is crucial. Projects consisting of self-contained residential units or non-residential units for sale or rent to the elderly will not be fundamentally different from typical PRS (private rented sector) projects”, Anna Wiśniewska of CMS stressed.
Key figures presented by Jacek Kałużny, Head of Operational Capital Markets Department at Savills Poland, indicate that: “Poland is ageing at a rapid pace. Currently, 20% of people in the country are 65 or over, and in 20 years’ time, this percentage will rise to almost 30%. This means that the need for housing and care for seniors is only going to grow, and we need to be ready for this growth.” In his presentation, Jacek Kałużny highlighted that, currently, the market for seniors’ housing and facilities in Poland is still at an early stage of development, with a low rate of availability of beds in private facilities—less than 2% for people over 80 years old. The Head of the Operational Capital Markets Department also pointed out that the shortage of qualified operators ready to manage such projects in Poland, which requires a more comprehensive approach to the development of the sector, still poses a challenge.
Growing needs of investors
The experts emphasised that the senior care market in Poland has huge potential for growth, especially in the area of long-term investment projects. One of the biggest challenges is the lack of large, available investment portfolios. The existing market is fragmented and the relatively small individual projects scattered around Poland do not attract the interest of international investors who are looking for “economies of scale”. Despite growing demand, care infrastructure for seniors remains insufficiently developed in Poland.
“Poland has the greatest potential in the healthcare real estate market in Europe, but the pace of development of care infrastructure does not yet reflect this. The trends are promising and I am pleased to see that the Polish care home sector is developing dynamically. We are also seeing growing interest in seniors’ housing in the independent living and assisted living segments, which, as in the West, may be developing the fastest in Poland”, noted Dr Andrzej Lejczak, President of the Polish Chamber of Nursing Homes (KIDO).
There are currently around 900 private care facilities, with 50 new ones opening in 2023. In the first quarter of this year, a further 13 homes were established, offering 500 new beds, and in the second quarter, a further 15 facilities were scheduled to open, which would provide an additional 600 places, Dr. Andrzej Lejczak pointed out.
Maciej Piotrowicz, who heads the Polish branch of Nrep, the Scandinavian real estate investor, emphasised the importance of operators and business partners for the further development of the market: “In order to increase the growth dynamics of this segment, we need strong operational partners who can effectively manage operations in ongoing projects. Investors are looking for stable models of cooperation, within which it will be possible to prepare business plans for the phase of long-term management of facilities.”
Without adequate support for care workers, it will be difficult to provide seniors with the highest quality services. “One of the biggest challenges that care homes in Poland face is a lack of qualified staff. Increasing demand for professional care requires not only the development of infrastructure, but also investment in human resources”, added Beata Leszczyńska of emeis Polska, which offers around 1,500 places in care homes and rehabilitation clinics, including assisted living flats in the Rezydencja Na Dyrekcyjnej senior living complex in Wrocław.
Changing preferences of seniors
Investors interested in investing capital in the sector see increasing potential in creating places that not only provide a place to live, but also enable seniors to pursue their interests. Such projects are also being developed by ORIGIN Investments, which offers serviced flats with access to a wide range of services, from activation, entertainment and recreation to support in day-to-day functioning and access to medical and rehabilitation services. “Our projects show that seniors are increasingly looking for solutions that offer not only a sense of security and access to a variety of services, but also the opportunity to lead an active lifestyle”, said Karol Bulenda of ORIGIN Investments.
The change in attitude towards the care of seniors is also evident in the decisions taken by families. Just a decade ago, the dominant model of care was home care, but now more and more families are opting for specialised facilities that offer comprehensive care. This not only eases the burden on families, but also ensures that seniors receive professional assistance in a comfortable environment. As shown in the ARC Rynek i Opinia survey conducted in 2024, in 10 years the percentage of people who are prepared to care for their loved one at home has decreased from 52% to 37%, while the group of those who would choose a specialist care centre has increased (23% in 2014 vs. 34% in 2024).
“Observing the growth in the senior living sector in the US, we see that the answer to the changing needs of seniors is new housing models, such as “active adult”, which focus on active, healthy and independent living in old age. Poland has the opportunity to build on this experience and create its own locally adapted solutions”, emphasises Sylwia Ziemacka of the Senior Housing & Healthcare Association (SHHA).
The expert added that today’s seniors are a diverse group whose needs are changing dynamically, and aging can no longer be viewed through the lens of traditional solutions such as care homes. “We need to change our thinking from an ‘ageing population’ to a ‘longevity population’ and focus on a quality of life that is longer, but also fuller and healthier. In Poland, we have an opportunity to develop this sector dynamically, but a good understanding and education of society about modern housing solutions for seniors will be crucial”, Sylwia Ziemacka added.
Challenges for investors – infrastructure and location
Piotr Fijołek, co-managing partner at Griffin Capital Partners, highlighted the challenges related to infrastructure and the availability of investment plots: “There is still a lot of competition in Poland for the best locations, which is affecting and will continue to affect the pace of investment development in the senior living sector. Investors often have to choose between more profitable projects, such as PRS or student housing, and investments in senior homes, which are more complicated in terms of operational management.” He also mentioned that the lack of sufficiently large investment portfolios is limiting the market’s ability to grow rapidly, requiring a change in the approach to investment and operators in the senior living market.
In this context, it is worth noting the potential of public-private partnerships (PPPs). “The organisation and provision of care services, including specialised services, at the place of residence falls within the scope of social assistance, which is the municipality’s own task. The PPP formula can help municipalities to meet the growing demand for senior care, while leveraging the expertise and resources of the private sector”, Anna Wiśniewska adds.
Beata Leszczyńska pointed out that the senior living market in Poland has huge growth potential, but the key is to create long-term, stable business models. Investors need to understand that the sector requires time and commitment, but can yield significant benefits, both financially and socially.
A new approach to investment risk management
The debate participants pointed out that one of the main barriers to entering the Polish market is regulatory uncertainty and the lack of a developed model of cooperation with operators. The use of long-term lease models can reduce risk for investors, which is standard in the more developed markets such as Sweden.
“We are seeing increasing interest from both local and foreign investors, who see long-term growth prospects in the sector. However, it is crucial for them to ensure operational stability and to find experienced operators who can effectively manage these investment projects”, said Jacek Kałużny of Savills Poland.
The experts also noted that Poland needs support in shaping new business models and tax regulations to make investing in the senior living sector more attractive. Reducing VAT costs could significantly lower barriers to entering the market and accelerate market development.
Outlook
The outlook for the senior living market in Poland is promising. “Investment in seniors’ healthcare and housing is a sector that will go from strength to strength in the coming years. However, we need to ensure that appropriate regulations and tax incentives are developed to facilitate such projects”, concluded Beata Leszczyńska of emeis Polska.
Opportunities for the sector
Poland faces a major opportunity to develop the market of housing and care services for seniors. Changing demographics, an ageing population, with the proportion of people over 65 projected to rise to 30% by 2050, and rising expectations of seniors’ quality of life are creating a solid foundation for future investments that can bring significant benefits to both investors and society. In addition, a growing understanding of needs, education of society about modern housing solutions for seniors, and support from the government and local authorities through various programmes, will also encourage the development of this sector in the near future.
