On Friday 11 November, the European Commission lowered its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2022 from 5.2% to 4.0%, and in 2023 from 1.5% to 0.7%. According to the Commission, an economic rebound is to take place in 2024, when the economy will grow by 2.6%. “Economic growth is expected to decelerate markedly in…
Poland’s macroeconomic situation in the context of war in Ukraine should be analysed from a few perspectives. First, direct economic impact. That is in fact quite limited. Combined export to Ukraine and Russia is around 5% of total Polish export. Belarus does not add much either. Also direct investments in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine were…
Forecasts are always subject to the risk of uncertainty and in the present conditions they are particularly reminiscent of fortune-telling from tea leaves. Economists are divided into two camps. Optimists claim that the global economy, and therefore also the Polish economy, has probably entered a path of growth. The pessimists point to a number of…
In November, Polish industry increased production by 15.2% annually, Statistics Poland reported. Excluding readings from April and May – which were burdened with the low base effect from 2020 – the November reading is the highest for the entire year. According to Mariusz Zielonka, an economic expert at the Polish Confederation Lewiatan, this excellent result…
The Monetary Policy Council unexpectedly decided to increase the NBP reference rate by 0.4 percentage points, from 0.1 to 0.5 percent. At the same time, the Council set the remaining NBP interest rates at the following levels: ▪ lombard rate at 1.00%; ▪deposit rate at 0.00%; ▪rediscount rate at 0.51%; ▪discount rate at 0.52%. Moreover,…
